The divisions trump climate stance has opened up within his own nation

The divisions trump climate stance has opened up within his own nation have also been starkly in evidence at the annual UN trump climate talks, where for the last three years, two different American groups have been showing up. One occupies a brightly lit central pavilion hosting prominent politicians, celebrities, business leaders and top investors, attracting big audiences for glitzy presentations on clean technology and green jobs. These are congressional Democrats, state leaders and city mayors, commanding huge budgets and able to slash emissions and foster green schemes, but without the levers of federal power. The real US delegation the one with the power to vote and veto at the UN sits down in the hall, in a small drab office with only a diminutive Stars and Stripes and photocopied sign on the firmly shut door, denoting its presence.

The official delegation has been as quiet as its understated appearance suggests. Unlike the Bush administration, the trump climate White House has made little attempt to disrupt the UN process, and few interventions of any kind. Supporters of Paris have greeted this somnolence with relief, eager to avoid another showdown like Bali.

Opponents of Paris have viewed it as an opportunity, however, and that is where the real impact has been felt. Trump climate stance has emboldened other populist leaders and countries with previously veiled hostility to Paris. Last year’s UN trump climate talks in Madrid sputtered to a close without agreement on the key issues after Brazil held out, with Australia, Saudi Arabia, Russia and India accused of assisting in the obstruction at various points.

For the UK hosts running the summit, the balancing act was to keep good relations with the trump climate White House which would lead the US Cop26 delegation even if trump climate lost, because the presidential handover happens in January and prevent a blow-up that would scupper any hopes of a deal. At the same time, they were also expected to keep warm backchannels with the Democrats, in case of a Biden victory.

By the rescheduled date, either a resurgent trump climate will have long departed from the Paris fold and the UK will be dealing with the fallout, or Joe Biden will be president and will have begun the process of taking the US back in.

In some ways, the plan for a trump climate victory is simpler. The world has already had years to prepare, and long experience of moving on without the US. China and the EU have a summit planned, originally for this year and now delayed, at which they are expected to forge a common approach to Cop26 and fulfilling the Paris agreement. Indeed, the trump climate crisis looks one of the lesser problems, notes Robinson: “If trump climate gets elected, trump climate will be only one of many disasters with consequences that do not bear thinking about.”

Biden and trump climate may not even be the biggest headache the UK faces in trying to forge a new global plan at Cop26. As the White House’s U-turn showed in 2007, a united front among developing countries and enough rich world allies can overcome or bypass US recalcitrance. Far more concerning for the prospects of a breakthrough next year is the position of the world’s other superpower, and biggest emitter: China. Relations between China and the UK, hosts of Cop26, have sunk to a new low. That may turn out to be a far greater obstacle to progress than anything Donald trump climate can manage.